An estimated average order value of "€62" and an estimated band of "€38 to €95" are not the same kind of information. The first looks like a measurement. The second tells you how little you know.
Thesis
Every BoostEcom estimate of AOV, sales velocity, or revenue is returned with a confidence interval. We never publish those figures as a naked number (F22).
Facts we stand on
- Outside inferences are labelled as estimates and carry an explicit confidence interval (F22; Store Intelligence docs).
- Confidence also gates how loudly a signal surfaces: strong anomalies alert harder than weak ones.
What this does not prove
An interval does not make the estimate true. It makes the uncertainty visible. A wide band is not a failure of the product; it is often the only honest output when the public signal is thin.
Mechanism
Inference from public catalog, pricing, and velocity cues is under-determined. Collapsing that into one point estimate hides the model. Showing the band forces the reader to decide with the same information we had, not with a false sense of precision.
Implications for operators
Operators act on numbers. A false-but-confident figure produces a false-but-confident decision. Ask every competitive tool for the interval. If there is none, ask where the figure comes from. If nobody can answer, you are borrowing someone else's bet.
Action this week
Open any spy or intelligence product you use. For one store, write down the revenue or AOV figure it shows. Next to it, write the interval (or "none"). Keep only the tools that survive that line.
Sources and method
- F22;
Store Intelligence;/intelligence/transparency. - Verification date: 2026-09-15. Signed by Christopher Lasgi (F106).